The Trends We’re Watching This Election

People often ask me about my thoughts or predictions on an upcoming election. As Pivotal Ventures’ Senior Director of Advocacy and Public Affairs, I get to talk to our partners on the ground about what they’re hearing and seeing—particularly as it relates to women’s political power and issues that we care deeply about like paid leave and support for caregivers.

With the U.S. elections right around the corner, I wanted to share the biggest takeaways from these conversations and the trends that Pivotal Ventures is watching in the countdown to Election Day.

1. Caregiving and paid leave have never been featured so prominently in an election.

Care and paid leave are coming up in the election conversation in a way we haven’t seen before. Candidates are talking about these issues on the stump and getting questions about their policies in debates; media outlets are reporting on their policy stances; and voters are asking for solutions. In a survey from Morning Consult we commissioned over the summer:

• More than 8 in 10 voters said candidates and policymakers should make it a priority to increase investments in care. That included 89 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans, and 77 percent of Independents.
• Nearly two-thirds of voters said they would be more likely to vote for a political candidate who pledges to make caregiving easier and more affordable.

Given the financial, emotional, and mental costs families are facing, it’s no wonder we’re seeing paid leave and support for caregivers emerge as politically salient issues on both sides of the aisle. Care and paid leave are no longer perceived as just “women’s issues,” but as “pocketbook issues” impacting the economic security of tens of millions of people.

It’s worth noting that caregiving and paid leave are also on the radar this election because advocacy groups have mobilized to raise awareness of these issues and their political champions. They have delivered petitions to Capitol Hill; supported candidates up and down the ballot; spent over $1 million on media ads; and talked to voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.

In the run up to the election, we will continue to follow the conversation around care and paid leave and to support partners working to keep these issues in the spotlight—both now and when opportunities for policy action arise next year.

2. Women are energized and exercising political power in a multitude of ways.

Women are showing up in force this election—as voters, as donors, as candidates, and as frontline election workers who make our democracy function. And with the historic nomination of a woman of color for president, our partners are telling us that they’re seeing a surge in interest in their work to build women’s political power.

For example, in a three-week span, 10,000 Black women became new members of Higher Heights for America, an organization dedicated to building the political power of Black women. Red Wine and Blue told us that they’ve welcomed thousands of new volunteers. And partners working to close the gender gap in political giving have seen an increase in donations through giving circles, which are primarily made up of women.

Here are some other bright spots we’re tracking that could have lasting impact.

• Women’s representation in state legislatures: Pivotal Ventures and partners like the Pipeline Fund and Sister District Action Network are particularly focused on increasing women’s representation in state legislatures, given their purview over everything from budgets to reproductive rights. States like New Mexico (thanks in part to groups like Advance Native Political Action Fund), Washington, and Colorado will have strong slates of women running for their legislatures this November, and we may even see a few more state legislatures join Nevada in reaching gender parity.
• Greater support for mothers running for office: As of today, 35 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. allow candidates to use campaign funds for child care—an important recognition that running for office can be a full-time job. We hope that, over time, this change will help more parents, especially moms, to run for office.
• Women protecting democracy: Women make free and fair elections happen, serving in every role from volunteer poll worker to secretary of state. In fact, an incredible 80 percent of local election officials are women. They are stepping up for our country’s democracy despite increased harassment and abuse, and their work is more important than ever.
  
  

  Women in democracy organizations are also leading the charge to tackle political violence in key states. They are working to debunk election disinformation, offering safety and security resources to organizers on the ground, and sharing best practices on how to de-escalate volatile situations at polling locations.

• Women showing up at the ballot box: Data shows that women have outvoted men in every presidential election since 1980. With so many important issues at stake this November—from caregiving to women’s reproductive rights—we expect this trend to continue.

While the political power of women is on full display this election, so are the barriers to it. This election, women candidates continue to face systemic challenges that make it harder to run, win, and lead, including sexist and racist online abuse, outdated and misogynistic perceptions of women’s leadership, a lack of caregiving support, and a higher hill to climb to raise money and show viability. In fact, fewer women are running for Congress this year than in past election cycles (Although, to be fair, fewer candidates are running at all.) This is a reminder that progress is not guaranteed but takes consistent and collaborative work.

Our focus through the election

With so much riding on this election, Pivotal Ventures will continue to support partners on the front lines of advocating for issues that will advance social progress, creating a more equitable political system for women, and protecting democracy for all of us.